AI Mania Is Eviscerating Global Decision-Making
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全球公私部门的机构如今正陷入一场由对人工智能不理性且失控的痴迷引发的大规模集体错乱。与从小型服务行业到财富 500 强公司的众多组织直接合作后,我发现领导层要么彻底放弃了理性的战略规划,要么陷入瘫痪性的恐惧,在组织推进注定失败的 AI 项目时选择沉默。这样的环境助长了不鼓励诚实评估的文化,成功指标常被篡改,用以为对那些往往无法带来显著生产力提升的技术进行巨额投资辩护。
这些 AI 项目的现实很严峻——在观察到的案例中几乎没有可衡量的成功。最常见的内部与面向客户的聊天机器人频繁失败,原因包括数据质量差、缺乏明确的用户价值以及大型语言模型的固有局限。公司往往不肯承认失败,而是混淆视听、操纵指标,或干脆忽视显示其投资无效的数据。当有人质疑这些项目时,质疑常被视为职业攻击,使顾问或内部员工在不冒失去地位或工作的风险下几乎无法提出关键性的批评意见。
这种氛围造成了意识形态上的俘获,员工和高管都被迫在公开场合对 AI 的变革力量做出表态。技术人员和非技术人员越来越被迫用 AI 粉饰工作流程,甚至谎报对语言模型的使用以满足管理层要求。那些表达怀疑或未能表现出对这些工具的"表面承诺"的人,常遭职业报复。由此形成了离奇且近乎邪教般的氛围,理性的职业判断被压制,人们宁愿维持所谓的创新形象,即便这些做法显然损害组织的长期健康。
这种从众压力在高层管理之间的复杂协调问题下被进一步放大。许多组织已公开将自身形象与所谓由 AI 驱动的生产力提升捆绑在一起,任何一位高管若试图坦诚指出缺乏实际成果,都可能削弱同僚并危及企业合同。因此,领导者们被迫处于僵局,只得继续传播他们明知是夸大或虚假的说法,以免被视为异端。这种动态令有效决策陷入停滞,组织更在意维持"AI 原生"的门面,而不是解决真实的业务问题。
在这样的环境中生存需要谨慎且务实的做法。对于那些力图在被俘机构内实现真实目标的人,建议尽量在私下、一对一的场合展开工作,以建立信任并避开群体会议中的表演性压力。去挑战有关 AI 的广泛、近似宗教式的论断通常无效,应把注意力放在具体、对象级的任务上。对于仅想保持理智的个人,最好的策略往往是尽量减少接触与 AI 有关的话题,保持职业界限;若环境变得过于有毒,则应考虑寻找规模更小、更脚踏实地的组织,在那里实际工作仍比当前的市场狂热更重要。
Global institutions across both the private and public sectors are currently undergoing a mass psychosis driven by an irrational and unchecked obsession with artificial intelligence. Having worked directly with numerous organizations ranging from small service industries to Fortune 500 companies, it has become evident that leadership teams have either completely abandoned rational strategic planning or are trapped in a state of paralyzing fear, choosing to remain silent as their organizations pursue failing AI initiatives. This environment has fostered a culture where honest assessment is discouraged, and success metrics are routinely misrepresented to justify massive investments in technology that often fails to deliver meaningful productivity gains.
The reality of these AI projects is stark, with the author noting a complete lack of measurable success in observed implementations. Internal and customer-facing chatbots, which are the most common applications, frequently fail due to poor data quality, a lack of clear user utility, and the fundamental limitations of large language models. Rather than admitting these failures, companies often engage in obfuscation, gaming metrics, or simply ignoring data that suggests their investments are ineffective. When these projects are questioned, the inquiries are frequently perceived as professional attacks, making it nearly impossible for consultants or internal staff to provide critical guidance without risking their status or employment.
This climate has created a form of ideological capture where employees and executives alike feel compelled to perform public acts of faith regarding the transformative power of AI. Technicians and non-technicians are increasingly being forced to "AI-wash" their workflows, lying about their use of language models to satisfy management mandates. Those who express doubt or fail to demonstrate an artificial commitment to these tools often face professional retaliation. This has led to a bizarre, cult-like atmosphere where rational professional judgment is suppressed in favor of maintaining the appearance of innovation, even when such tactics are clearly detrimental to long-term organizational health.
The pressure to conform is exacerbated by a complex coordination problem, particularly among senior executives. Because many organizations have publicly tethered their corporate identities to AI-driven productivity claims, any executive who attempts to speak honestly about the lack of actual results risks undermining their peers and jeopardizing enterprise contracts. As a result, leaders are effectively locked in a standoff, where they must continue to propagate what they know to be exaggerations or falsehoods to avoid being seen as heretics. This dynamic has brought effective decision-making to a halt, as organizations prioritize maintaining the "AI-native" facade over solving actual business problems.
Surviving this environment requires a careful, pragmatic approach. For those trying to achieve legitimate objectives within these captured institutions, the author suggests operating exclusively in private, one-on-one settings to build trust and avoid the performative pressure of group meetings. Challenging the broader, religion-like claims about AI is usually counterproductive and should be avoided in favor of focusing on specific, object-level tasks. For individuals simply trying to maintain their sanity, the best course of action is often to minimize exposure to AI-related discourse, maintain professional boundaries, and—if the environment becomes too toxic—seek opportunities in smaller, more grounded organizations where actual work still takes precedence over the current market mania.
286 comments • Comments Link
• 关于"AI 项目成功率为 0%"的说法,很可能由严重的选择偏差驱动:那家咨询公司明确拒绝承接与 AI 有关的新合同,而专门负责救火失败的软件项目,样本并不具有代表性。
• 企业级 AI 的许多"失败"并非技术本身造成,而是源自组织功能失调——组织常在目标不清、缺乏技术专长的情况下匆忙启动所谓的 AI 计划。
• 当前的"AI 热潮"类似于历史上的 Agile 或区块链浪潮:领导层为了显示创新而追逐时髦技术,往往以牺牲实际生产力为代价。
• 个人开发者用 AI 工具辅助编码通常能带来真实的生产力提升,这与承诺过高、执行乏力的复杂企业级 AI 项目是两码事。
• 许多企业 AI 项目失败还归因于缺乏技术严谨性,如忽视评估框架、 RAG 设计糟糕或未进行成本效益权衡。
• "AI"正在被一些非技术管理者当作方便的总称,用以掩盖决策失误、回避问责或为组织变革寻找借口。
• 反对 AI 的人认为,依赖上世纪九十年代的"陈旧技术"是一种防御性的唱反调,而不是对现代工程挑战的平衡评估。
• pro-AI 与 anti-AI 之间激烈且常被夸大的论战,反映了深层的文化裂痕——技术成了关于劳动力、管理和未来工作的焦虑代理。
• AI 成功的整合常常是低调的,悄然增强现有工作流;而那些高曝光的"AI 项目"往往表面光鲜、实质薄弱,在审视下容易瓦解。
• 一概否定所有 AI 应用为失败忽视了许多开发者正成功利用本地开源模型和稳健的数据管道来解决明确的、具体的问题。
这场讨论反映了围绕 AI 的深刻两极分化,很大程度上源于成功、非侵入性的开发者主导集成与高层推动下的企业级失败之间的脱节。多数参与者认为组织功能失调是许多项目崩溃的根本原因,并指出"AI"常被贴在含糊不清的倡议上,用来掩盖管理不善或目标缺失。尽管有人对当前的炒作周期持强烈怀疑,但普遍观点是"0% 成功率"的说法很可能是自选偏差与咨询公司逆向行为的产物,而非行业全貌。归根结底,这场辩论凸显了一个过渡期:行业正努力把新工具的实际效用与受行政压力驱动的表面性采用区分开来。 • Claims of a 0% success rate for AI projects are likely driven by severe selection bias, as the consultancy explicitly rejects AI-related contracts and specializes in salvaging failing software projects.
• Much of the perceived failure in enterprise AI stems from organizational dysfunction rather than the technology itself, as organizations often launch "AI initiatives" without clear goals or technical expertise.
• The current "AI mania" mirrors historical corporate trends like Agile or blockchain, where leadership teams pursue fashionable technologies to demonstrate innovation, often to the detriment of actual productivity.
• A clear distinction exists between individual developers using AI tools for coding assistance, which often yields genuine productivity gains, and complex enterprise "AI projects," which frequently suffer from over-promising and poor execution.
• Many enterprise AI implementations fail due to a lack of technical rigor, such as ignoring evaluation frameworks, poor RAG design, or a failure to implement cost-performance tradeoffs.
• The term "AI" is being used as a convenient umbrella for a wide array of systems, often by non-technical managers seeking to deflect accountability for poor decision-making or to provide cover for organizational changes.
• Critics of the anti-AI stance argue that relying on "ancient techniques" from the 90s is a defensive, contrarian strategy rather than a balanced approach to evaluating modern engineering challenges.
• The intense, often hyperbolic nature of both the pro-AI and anti-AI discourse suggests a deep-seated cultural divide, where the technology has become a proxy for broader anxieties about labor, management, and the future of work.
• Successful integration of AI is often invisible, quietly enhancing existing workflows, whereas high-profile "AI projects" are frequently high-visibility, low-substance efforts that collapse under scrutiny.
• The tendency to dismiss all AI usage as failure ignores that many developers are successfully leveraging local open-weight models and robust data pipelines to solve specific, well-defined problems.
The conversation reflects a deep polarization surrounding AI, driven largely by the disconnect between successful, unobtrusive developer-led integration and high-level corporate failures. Many participants recognize that organizational dysfunction is the root cause of many project collapses, noting that "AI" is often a label applied to ill-defined initiatives used to mask poor management or lack of purpose. While some maintain a strong skepticism toward the current hype cycle, there is a consensus that the "0% success rate" claim is likely a product of self-selecting bias and consultant-driven contrarianism rather than a reflection of the industry as a whole. Ultimately, the debate highlights a transition period where the industry is struggling to separate the genuine utility of new tools from the performative adoption forced by executive pressure.